So, it seems to be pretty much confirmed - Obama v McCain. What's not confirmed is the VP ticket on either side.
It seems to me, having watched a few hours of TV on Sunday and last night, that the GOP is trotting out Huckabee an awful lot lately. Pundits keep asking him about being a VP candidate, and he's sucking up very, very hard. He talks about how he thinks McCain was clearly the best choice (behind himself, of course) and thinks he's the best thing to happen to the country since sliced whatever.
And here's the thing about Huckabee- he's really likeable. I mean, I look at most of his politics and I think "schmuck". I hear about his religious stances in direct opposition to science development and I think "ignorant ape". But then I watch him talk on a show with ease and a genuine smile on his face and think "dude's okay."
Scary. He's nailed the "I'm so likeable" down to a T - and it might just be that he IS that likeable and the person you see is what you get. It wouldn't surprise me that much... but the problem here is that policy-wise (with the exception, imho, of his tax plan) the dude is just about exactly the same as Bush/McCain.
Still, he'd be an excellent VP choice for McCain, politically speaking. He'd definitely bring the evangelical vote back in a strong way... Couple that with the storm brewing (conveniently timed, eh?) over gay marriage, and you have a much more powerful GOP ticket than before.
I believe very strongly that gay marriage cost the election for the Democrats in 2004 (well, that and running one of the least dynamic candidates and campaigns ever). The church flocks showed up in force at the polls in Ohio and other swing states energized largely by the desperation to keep men from marrying other men (because, as we all know, as soon as that happens it'll somehow be the end of marriage or something like that whatever moving on), and while they were there OF COURSE they would vote for Bush. I am very nervous about this fall - while I believe that gay marriage IS an important issue (I believe in giving ANY consenting adults the right to divorce if they want to, and marriage is a step in the right direction), I think that it is a risky proposal.
People get VERY charged up about sex... I don't necessarily get it, personally - I mean, sex is awesome, don't get me wrong. It's great and whatever, but come ON people. How the hell does it affect YOU when Johnny's slurping Jimmy's pole? And what the hell do you care if while doing that, they're getting a tax break? Are you somehow afraid that by allowing them to be called married that you're legitimizing homosexuals? OH GOD NO ANYTHING BUT THAT!!!!
Whoops - where was I? Oh, right. My prediction for VP tickets is as follows:
McCain / Huckabee
Obama / AnyoneNotNamedClinton
I think, very strongly, that Obama will avoid Hillary at ALL costs. I don't think she'll fight that, either. It's likely that once we're past the primary, she's going to be getting a nice talking-to from ThePowersThatBe about the fact that the Clintons no longer hold any real power in the party, and that if she doesn't get on with the program, she'll be dropped entirely from the supporting embrace of the party. (well, maybe it won't be that strong but it'll likely be ugly for the Clinton legacy)
I have a feeling that Obama will go for someone with executive experience, minority appeal, and more of a centrist stance on politics. I can think of a few possibilities, but Bill Richardson seems to stick out in my head. Being of Hispanic descent, he nails one of the major demographics the Democrats are dying to hold onto (and risk alienating by running a black candidate, despite what the PC pollsters / spin artists are saying - there is a rift there). Richardson also calms the people down who talk about experience in an executive capacity - he's got that in droves and would likely be a good influence in moderation to Obama's ticket. He's got that "gravitas" thing everyone was so keen on in 2000, as well.
This is going to be interesting, as far as these races can go. There are a lot of factors at play which historically haven't combined in quite this way before. Questions of race, sex, sexual orientation, religion, and policy are interacting and blazing some cool trails. I'm pretty much glued to this ride. Should be fun from here out, I think.