A REAL Republican's thoughts on Palin.

"Who wants honey / as long as there's some money"
-Smashing Pumpkins "Cherub Rock"

These thoughts are from a discussion I've been having with an honest-to-goodness Republican that I have verified as actually being active within the Republican organization. This is a direct quote -

As for Palin, I think it's ironic that the show the McCain campaign is most angry with over their satire of Palin is Saturday Night Live, home of the original Not Ready For Prime Time Players. That the campaign has made such a big deal out of both it and their war with the NY Times is proof that the Republicans are on the defensive; the Republicans stay as close to their playbook as the Democrats do, and when Republicans are losing they almost always try to pick a fit with the media. It gins up the base, and if they lose, provides a scapegoat that protects them from self-doubt. The McCain's campaign is trying to turn every gaffe and sign of weakness that Palin openly displays into a positive for base turnout by accusing the media of having a Republican bias.

Palin was picked to shake up the race, which McCain was unable to get traction in, shore up the base by giving them something (ANYTHING) to be enthusiastic about, and to try to join the 'Historic Campaign' race with Obama. Americans like to hear that they have done things that are historic; I think that was one of the unsung factors that got W elected. Picking Palin was risky, and it had a big immediate effect because it ignited the trapped, unexpressed envy of the Republican party for the kind of energy that Obama's campaign has shown. On the morning after, though, we find out that she can't put a sentence together, and is so far out of her league that Biden is more likely to get the bends talking to her than he is to name drop some foreign leader. She claims to read all of the newspapers, but can't think of one. She contradicts McCain's Pakistan policy, which is itself full of inconsistencies because Obama out-danced and boxed him in, and then does a double interview with him there as chaperone. Her handlers, former Bush campaign staff, do what worked for them in the past, which is train her like a parrot with talking points and keep her in media lockdown. McCain's disatisfaction with her handlers leaked last week; the problem for him is that her handlers are a symptom of a deeper problem with his campaign.

On a macro level, McCain's campaign reflects the divisions in the party; McCain is not well liked by the base, who consider him too likely to work with liberals and sell out their values, just as much of the base feels about congressional republicans and W. The next layer is the campaign staff itself, full of the sucess stories of past Republican victories- which means that they are largely from the Bush and congressional races. In essence, the base doesn't fully trust the McCain campaign, and the campaign staff themselves are former adversaries of their front runner as well as former advocates of the Republican elected officials that the base is furious with. Cognitiive dissonance is inevitable, and to make it worse, Republicans have a very centralized information control system to keep people on talking points. Going off message is like going off the reservation- it is not a good career move. This is why the usual conservative talking heads were attacking Obama as a flip flopper until early in the summer; the talking point hadn't been updated, and the party was still running against John Kerry.

All in all, I don't think she'll be vice president, and I don't think she will ever be vice-presidential or presidential material. It's not her fault though; I don't think anyone could possibly hold the 2nd place under McCain right now and not look like a total fool. I suspect, though I don't have any evidence, that other VP candidates who knew the state of McCain's campaign may have decided to simply pass on the offer.

She was tossed into a heady campaign pulled in different directions with a man at the helm who the staff largely work for for their own career advancements with competing political philosophies, not out of loyalty. What makes sense within the campaign does not make sense anywhere else. Decisions are made quickly and frantically, and then get locked into policy. Anyone thrown into that mess midstream, unable to absorb everything that is going on, with no power to make decisions, is going to be very confused and have a hard time putting a pretty face on it for the public. Probably the thing that demonstrates that Palin is not vice presidential material is not anything she's said in interviews, but that she accepted the slot on the ticket in the first place.

No kidding. I think one of the most interesting and damning lines here is "I suspect, though I don't have any evidence, that other VP candidates who knew the state of McCain's campaign may have decided to simply pass on the offer."

It's been pretty apparent to me that the McCain campaign hasn't been run correctly from the get-go. He subverted himself in order to win the primaries, and lost the "Maverick" thing he had going for himself. It used to be, several years ago, that dyed-in-the-wool liberals (hell, my brother Adam) actually thought the McCain was admirable. Now? I mostly see contempt.... the kind of contempt I saw for the punk / modern rock bands of the late 80's when they started signing to major labels and "selling out".

Honestly, it seems like Palin is making it worse for McCain - she's shining a spotlight on the mismanaged disaster McCain's stuck with. I can't even fully blame it on him, though- his campaign has been run, from day one, as if it was based in 1996 instead of 2008. Obama's been faster and more flexible in his campaign, dancing circles around McCain where it counts. It's kind of painful to watch, too... I really do sometimes wish McCain's staff would get a clue. Even though I want him to lose, I also want an interesting campaign that actually has ideas and discussion instead of the Rove-esque advertising and soundbites coming from both sides.